Saturday, November 28, 2020

Predicting the price of Bitcoin

 


The figure below shows how the amount of Bitcoin mined decreases by half every 4 years, until 21 million is reached.  This is shown by the red dotted lines. The price of Bitcoin follows this 4 year halving event like a heart beat. In the middle of each halving event is a price peak formed by a sharp rise followed by a sharp drop. The price drops to about 1/5 of the peak and rises gradually to about 1/2 of the peak where it fluctuates before suddenly rising to a new peak 4 years later. 

As the adaptation of Bitcoin increases, so will the price until saturation is reached where it will level out. 






The figures below shows the peaks and dips that follows the heartbeat every 4 years. They are scaled to a logarithmic scale because they increase exponentially. 


If the price of Bitcoin is determined by its adoption, and the price is shown in a logarithmic scale, we can see how the price shown by the black bars, increases as the scarcity of new Bitcoins increases. The Bitcoin price follows the logarithmic decline of new Bitcoins issued as it is halved every 4 years shown by the blue line.


After 10 years in 2020, we are just in the beginning of Bitcoin adoption. Thus we are just at the beginning of a price increase that can take the price of Bitcoin as high as  1M dollars in the next 10 years. 


So HODL your Bitcoins and accumulate them as much as you can. The sooner you start, the more you will have. Store your private key on a hardware wallet and store your recovery seed in a place safe from fire flood and unwanted eyes where it can not be lost. The best place is in a safty deposit box in your local bank where it will be accessible by your inheritors if you die.  

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